NFL Divisional Playoffs Game Picks

Baltimore (11-6) vs. New England (12-4) 4:35 P.M. NBC

            The last two playoff meetings between these teams were classic games.  New England won 23-20 in 2012 and Baltimore triumphed 28-13 in 2013 on their way to a Super Bowl title.  Logically, playoff duels from two or more years ago are not indicative of a present outcome.  The Patriots have the higher ranked offense (3rd vs. 8th in points scored), the better defense (8^th vs 9^th in points allowed), and a plus twelve turnover margin compared to Baltimore’s plus two margin. 

            Therefore, the Patriots are the logical choice.  But how often is football logical?  Football is an emotionally charged game that rewards aggression.  Last week in Pittsburgh, the Ravens illustrated how an emotionally sharp team can execute a game plan to perfection.  It is likely that Darrelle Revis will shadow Steve Smith.  If that is the case, Joe Flacco will lose his possession receiver but gain opportunities with Torrey Smith downfield.  Baltimore has stressed what they call “splash” plays.  Last week the defense, particularly Terrell Suggs, provide the splash.  Look for Flacco to play within himself and capitalize on his splash play opportunities.  

The Pick: Baltimore- 27 New England- 23

Carolina (8-8-1) vs. Seattle (12-4) 8:15 P.M. Fox

            Honestly, on paper this is the simplest game of the week.  Some may point to their prior meeting this year, which Seattle won 13-9 in Charlotte.  Since that game, Seattle has switched off cruise control and regained their swagger.  Carolina swooned and then recovered enough to win the NFC South.  These teams mirror each other in style and personality.  The box score from the previous game reflects that reality.

            Seattle mustered 310 total yards and Carolina churned out 226 total yards.  Each team had a pair of turnovers and Seattle had three more penalties than Carolina.  However, the box score does not reveal the total truth about that meeting.  Graham Gano kicked a 46 yard field goal to give Carolina a 9-6 lead with 4:46 left in the game.  Russell Wilson than led Seattle on an eighty-yard drive that was capped by Wilson’s 23-yard touchdown throw to Luke Wilson. 

            Russell Wilson went 4-4 for 53 yards throwing and had two rushes for an additional 21 yards on that final drive.  His passer rating for the nine play game winning drive was 158.3.  For those of you scoring at home, that is a perfect passer rating.  Russell Wilson will again be a difference maker for Seattle.  Moreover, the 12^th man will have an impact on a mechanically shaky Cam Newton. 

The Pick: Seattle- 24 Carolina- 13

Dallas (13-4) vs. Green Bay (12-4) 1:05 P.M. Fox

            The Cowboys’ team shop is selling Ice Bowl II shirts for this match-up.  That is odd since Dallas lost that memorable contest on Bart Starr’s quarterback sneak at the gun.  Yet, it makes sense for Dallas to paint this game as a resumption of the Ice Bowl.  NFL football in 1967 focused on running the ball and that is what Dallas does well.  The Cowboys are second in the NFL in rushing this season and are facing Green Bay’s eleventh-ranked run defense.  That should mean that Tony Romo, and his tender back, will not be flung onto the famed frozen tundra of Lambeau Field often.  This is contingent on Dallas staying within contact of Green Bay on the scoreboard.

            Since the Packers have the best quarterback in the NFL and the top ranked passing game in the NFL, Dallas’ twenty-sixth ranked pass defense is faced with a considerable challenge.  Additionally, the Cowboys will likely be down three key defensive players.  If linebacker Rolando McClain, defensive end Jeremy Mincey, and defensive tackle Terrell McClain miss the game, Dallas faces long odds.  Shortages on the defensive line would be particularly problematic because that would allow Eddie Lacy room to run and limit the fourth quarter effectiveness of Dallas’ pass rush.  Some Cowboys fans may feel that Aaron Rodgers’ calf injury could be limiting enough to open the door for the upset.  Based on his performance in Week 17 against Detroit, that is an unlikely scenario.  

The Pick: Green Bay- 30 Dallas- 20

Indianapolis (12-5) vs. Denver (12-4) 4:40 P.M. CBS

            Andrew Luck vs. Peyton Manning is the obvious storyline here.  Luck replaced Manning in Indy and now finds his path to playoff glory obstructed by the man that Colt’s owner, Jim Irsay, deemed expendable.  Luck is an ascending talent who already ranks among the top five quarterbacks in the NFL.  Manning, at 38, is facing Father Time as well as blitzes.  It is a juicy angle but each quarterback will need offensive help.

            Dan “Boom” Herron has provided a lift to Indianapolis’ ground attack.  Herron has an impressive 4.5 yards per attempt in 2014.  He has displayed the short yardage tenacity that made him a crowd favorite at Ohio State.  Herron actually topped his yards per attempt average against his former team, when he went for 56 yards on 12 carries (4.67 Y/A) with a touchdown.  Herron added 10 receptions, on 11 targets, for an additional 85 yards.  This is the empirical reasoning behind Trent Richardson’s recent decrease in playing time. 

            When the Colts balance their offensive attack, they become a dynamic unit.  Despite leading the league in drops, the Colts’ receivers will provide big plays as long as they are not facing cover two or cover three looks.  The surefire way to make Denver’s defensive coordinator, Jack Del Rio slide a safety into the box is to feed Herron and frustrate Denver’s linebackers with drag routes by T.Y. Hilton.  Once the line of scrimmage is crowded, Luck will have the opportunity to strike deep.

            Of course, two things will frustrate Indianapolis’ offense.  The first is Denver’s pass defense (4^th in the NFL), which is better equipped than most defenses to handle Indianapolis’ first ranked passing game.  The second is Emmanuel Sanders.  With Vontae Davis likely following Demaryius Thomas for most of the game, the Colts will be challenged to find a way to contain Sanders.  Cornerback Greg Toler has the talent but is limited with a knee injury.  Look for Manning to emphasize the running game while using Sanders to build a quick lead.  In a repeat of last year’s Divisional loss to New England and this season’s opening week loss to Denver, Indy will be forced to abandon the run due to an early deficit and Luck’s heroics will fall short.  
The Pick: Denver- 31 Indianapolis- 24