New England (12-4) vs. Seattle (12-4) 6:30 P.M. NBC
At
the start of the 2014 season, the Patriots and Seahawks were two of the
likeliest teams to win the Super Bowl.
Now both teams find themselves within reach of notable
achievements. Seattle is seeking to
become the first team to win back-to-back titles since New England in 2003 and
2004. The Patriots are looking to win a
fourth Lombardi Trophy with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady at the helm. Chuck Noll is the only coach to claim four
Super Bowls and only Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana have won four Super Bowls
as a starting quarterback. Each squad is
seeking rarified air. Ultimately, the
winner of the Super Bowl will be the team who exploits mismatches
consistently. So let us turn our attention
to the X’s and O’s of a fascinatingly even showdown.
When Seattle has the ball, they will
face the best man-to-man coverage secondary in the NFL. This would ostensibly highlight Seattle’s
perceived offensive weakness, their receiving corps. The reality is that their offensive line is
their weakest offensive unit. However, the
idea that Doug Baldwin is going to have a big statistical game against Darrelle
Revis or Brandon Browner is laughable.
However, watch enough Seattle game tape from the last two seasons and a
theme emerges, when a big play is needed Baldwin or Jermaine Kearse
deliver. Look for a handful of important
completions to Seattle’s maligned receivers.
Those
completions may well come due to Russell Wilson’s mobility. He led NFL quarterbacks in rushing and the
popular description of his mobility is that he leaves the pocket with a plan. New England is stout in the middle of the
defensive line with Vince Wilfork so look for them to use their defensive ends
to set the edge as much as rush the passer.
Setting the edge will limit Wilson’s opportunity to scramble and it will
likely mean he is forced to give the ball to Marshawn Lynch on zone read
plays. With the ball handed off,
Patriots’ linebacker Jamie Collins, who will likely be a spy against Wilson,
will be free to attack the ball carrier.
On paper, the Seahawks will have difficulty moving the ball but as the
Packers can attest, somehow the Seahawks find a way.
When
New England has the ball, they will be facing the best defense in the
league. New England’s receivers have the
same skill set as Seattle’s receivers.
They find ways to get open and make the necessary plays. Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Brandon
LaFell will not win many matchups with any members of Seattle’s secondary. However, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels
excels at dictating matchups.
Specifically, he ensures that his quick receivers find themselves
running routes against linebackers or into vacated zones. The problem is that Seattle is a disciplined
unit who is unlikely to overreact to Rob Gronkowski, which will limit the
number of vacated zones and busted coverages.
In addition, the Seahawk linebackers are very fast and in Bobby Wagner’s
case, very adept in pass coverage.
Gronkowski
is New England’s one sure-fire physical matchup advantage. The Patriots specialize in utilizing
Gronkowski on seam routes against zone coverage; particularly cover three
looks. Seattle is a base cover three
defense. Gronkowski will be open
occasionally down the seams but the throwing window will be very tight against
Wagner and Earl Thomas, who is the second best defensive player in the NFL. Brady will need time to set his feet in order
to maximize these opportunities. The key
for Seattle is to make Brady uncomfortable, which means Michael Bennett and
Bruce Irvin will need big games.
This
leads into the ultimate key to the game for New England. They must pound the rock. Even if LeGarrette Blount, Shane Vereen,
Jonas Gray, or whoever else the Patriots have unearthed at running back is not
gaining substantial yardage, abandoning the run will guarantee a loss. Just ask Mike McCarthy. The problem is that this is Brady’s third
attempt to match his childhood idol, Joe Montana, with four rings. It seems unlikely that Brady will remain
content to pound the ball in apparent futility if Seattle gets a consequential lead. The margin for error is razor thin in this
game and assuming turnovers and penalties are essentially even, Brady’s ability
to submit himself to the game plan may be the deciding factor.
No comments:
Post a Comment