Championship Sunday Game Picks

Green Bay (12-4) vs. Seattle (12-4) 3:05 P.M. FOX

            Do not make the mistake of assuming that Seattle cannot lose at home.  Dallas knocked off Seattle this season at CenturyLink Field. The Cowboys relied on the ground game to secure their 30-24 victory.  Of course, that game was played in Week 6.  The ensuing weeks have seen Seattle’s defense regain their health and their championship form.  The Packers will need Eddie Lacy to play the game of his life in order to wring enough rushing yards to win.  Rushing yards are a byproduct of the path to victory over Seattle.  The key is actually rushing attempts.  Balanced play calling forces Seattle’s linebackers and Earl Thomas to play both facets of the game.  When allowed to key exclusively on the run or pass, the front seven becomes almost impossible to stop.  When Thomas is given similar free reign he is unstoppable.

   

            This all leads to the key to the game.  Aaron Rodgers must maintain run/ pass balance.  Other aspects of the game will garner attention from most analysts.  There are sound points like how it is true that both teams typically win turnover margin so that looms large.  Additionally, Randall Cobb, who leads the NFL in every major statistical category in receiving from the slot, should be Rodgers’ primary weapon.  These are valid points and there will be the requisite belaboring of Rodgers’ health.

 

Ultimately, Rodgers’ game management will determine this game.  Russell Wilson will put up enough points and in order for Green Bay to control the flow of the game, and the crowd, they must dictate the game thru rushing attempts.  Last season the Packers lost a hard fought game against the 49ers because Rodgers consistently checked out of runs in short yardage situations, particularly in the fourth quarter.  The only reason Green Bay’s defense was in position to allow the game winning drive that Colin Kaepernick engineered was because Rodgers’ audibles left points on the field.  Despite the monster game that Lacy was having against San Francisco, just recall the images of Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman bouncing off Lacy and grasping at air, Rodgers failed to trust his offensive line and running back.  History says Brett Favre’s former understudy will once again trust his arm in critical situations.

The Pick: Seattle- 27 Green Bay- 23

Indianapolis (11-5) vs. New England (12-4) 6:40 P.M. CBS

            It is easy and perhaps justifiable to hate the Patriots.  After all, they seemingly are always here this time of year.  In fact, if you disregard Tom Brady’s rookie year and the year he lost to a torn ACL, he has led New England to the AFC Championship game nine out of thirteen years.  The eight previous trips have yielded five Super Bowl trips and three Lombardi trophies.  That level of consistency naturally builds animosity from other fan bases, which brings us to Indianapolis.

            Perhaps no other fan base is so naturally opposed to New England’s empire.  More seasons than Colts fans care to remember have ended with Bill Belichick on the opposite sideline.  It is true that the 2006 AFC Championship game was a come from behind classic that set the stage for the Indianapolis Colts (note the emphasis on the city), and Peyton Manning, to win their only Super Bowl.  Just last year the Patriots trounced the Colts in the Divisional round.  So now, it is Andrew Luck’s opportunity to return the favor.

 

            This postseason has been a breakout pair of games for Luck.  That is assuming it is possible to breakout when you are already a top five player in the league.  Luck has eliminated the only vice in his game by limiting his occasionally prolific turnovers.  Look for him to continue to carry an undermanned Colts team.  Belichick knows that Luck is ever dangerous both in and out of the pocket.  Perhaps even more alarming for New England’s defense is the sixteen touchdown passes that Luck has on third down this season.  In the playoffs, snatching a touchdown from a defense that was one play from taking the offense off the field is monumental.  Luck will play well in this game but it will not be enough.  The Patriots are a talented team peaking at the right time.  
            The Pick: New England- 31 Indianapolis- 27