Arizona (11-5) vs. Carolina (7-8-1) 4:35 PM ESPN
The records are
deceptive for this first Wild Card matchup.
Arizona is a dangerous team when they have solid quarterback play but
injuries to Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton have left them with adequate
quarterback play at best. In Week 17,
Ryan Lindley threw for 316 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He also tossed three interceptions and
struggled to move the ball in the second half.
Arizona’s offensive issues are compounded by a rushing defense that has
struggled of late. Arizona has allowed
267 yards and 206 yards rushing in their last two games. The question is, can Carolina’s ground game
match Seattle and San Francisco’s output?
The Panthers have had
success over the last two games on the ground.
They gained 209 yards against Cleveland and 194 yards against
Atlanta. However, if one digs deeper you
notice that Carolina is 13th in the NFL in rushing yards per
attempt. Arizona struggled against
Seattle (1st in yards per attempt) and San Francisco (4th
in yards per attempt). This suggests
that Carolina is amassing yards with reps not profound success. Look for Arizona to clog the running lanes,
match Patrick Peterson up with Kelvin Benjamin, and dare Cam Newton to win from
the pocket. Momentum and home field are
in Carolina’s favor but Arizona has the coach of the year in Bruce Arians. Arians’ magic touch will propel Arizona past
Carolina in a low scoring physical showdown.
The Pick: Arizona- 23 Carolina-16
Baltimore (10-6) vs. Pittsburgh (11-5) 8:15 PM NBC
Le’Veon
Bell is not a NFL MVP candidate but his injury and subsequent limited availability
for this AFC North grudge match may go a long way to illustrating his
worth. Bell gained 2,215 yards from
scrimmage. Antonio Brown led the NFL in receiving
with 1,698 yards but Bell’s 1,361 rushing yards combined with his 83 receptions
for 854 yards contributed heavily to Brown’s explosive downfield production. Baltimore will not need to creep their safeties
into the box to contain Dri Archer or Ben Tate on the ground. That means Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes will
rest on Ben Roethlisberger’s shoulders.
Baltimore’s
best running back, Justin Forsett, will be available. Potentially, his 17-carry 119-yard
performance against Cleveland has gotten him back into rhythm. If Forsett is not productive on the ground
then Joe Flacco will be tasked with matching Roethlisberger. Torrey Smith and Steve Smith form a solid
tandem but Pittsburgh’s receiving corps is more explosive. In what may devolve into a very un-AFC North
like aerial duel, Brown, Markus Wheaton, and Martavis Bryant will prove to be
the difference. The Pick: Pittsburgh- 37
Baltimore- 31
Cincinnati (10-5-1) vs. Indianapolis (11-5) 1:05 PM CBS
The
Week 7 meeting between these squads was a one sided affair. Indy won 27-0 in what was their fifth
consecutive win. Since that meeting, the
Colts have been beatable, the Bengals have improved, and perhaps most
importantly, Andy Dalton has guided his team to a primetime win. Beating Denver 37-28 on Monday Night Football
was viewed as the first of many big game wins for the Bengals. Then Cincy dropped their AFC North title showdown
with Pittsburgh by the score of 27-17.
More puzzling was that the Bengals once again looked listless and were
mistake prone in a must win national television audience game.
Admittedly,
Andrew Luck has been shaky with ball security lately. His sixteen interceptions are not as
concerning as his thirteen fumbles. The
Colts’ defense has been solid against bad teams recently and struggled against
Dallas in Week 16. It is unlikely that
Indianapolis will duplicate their 27-0 blasting of Cincinnati. If A.J. Green were healthy and not likely to
be covered by Vontae Davis, the Bengals would have a chance at winning. Jeremy Hill will break some runs and ease the
pressure on Dalton but Luck simply will not let Indy lose this game. The Pick: Indianapolis- 31 Cincinnati- 23
Detroit (11-5) vs. Dallas (12-4) 4:40 PM Fox
Detroit’s
run defense versus the Dallas running attack is the epitome of a strength on strength
battle. The Lions’ run defense is first
in the league in yards allowed and yards per attempt. The Cowboys’ ground attack is second and
third in those respective categories. Ndamukong
Suh avoiding a one game suspension is pivotal to Detroit’s chances in this
game. Suh has elevated his play for his
contract year. In the past, a wham
blocking scheme (The central component of this is a tight end pulling into the backfield
and whamming a penetrating defensive lineman. This seals the backside of the play
and creates natural cutback lanes for the running back.) has been used to great
effect on Detroit’s aggressively penetrating defensive line. Suh’s improved awareness has limited this
scheme’s effectiveness. Jason Witten is
a capable enough blocker to utilize wham blocks but Dallas will likely rely on
their plethora of talented lineman (particularly Zach Martin) to pull and trap Detroit’s
defenders into submission.
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