Baltimore (11-6) vs. New England (12-4) 4:35 P.M.
NBC
The
last two playoff meetings between these teams were classic games. New England won 23-20 in 2012 and Baltimore
triumphed 28-13 in 2013 on their way to a Super Bowl title. Logically, playoff duels from two or more
years ago are not indicative of a present outcome. The Patriots have the higher ranked offense (3rd
vs. 8th in points scored), the better defense (8th vs 9th
in points allowed), and a plus twelve turnover margin compared to Baltimore’s
plus two margin.
Therefore,
the Patriots are the logical choice. But
how often is football logical? Football
is an emotionally charged game that rewards aggression. Last week in Pittsburgh, the Ravens
illustrated how an emotionally sharp team can execute a game plan to
perfection. It is likely that Darrelle
Revis will shadow Steve Smith. If that
is the case, Joe Flacco will lose his possession receiver but gain
opportunities with Torrey Smith downfield.
Baltimore has stressed what they call “splash” plays. Last week the defense, particularly Terrell
Suggs, provide the splash. Look for
Flacco to play within himself and capitalize on his splash play
opportunities.
The Pick: Baltimore- 27
New England- 23
Carolina (8-8-1) vs. Seattle (12-4) 8:15 P.M. Fox
Honestly,
on paper this is the simplest game of the week.
Some may point to their prior meeting this year, which Seattle won 13-9
in Charlotte. Since that game, Seattle
has switched off cruise control and regained their swagger. Carolina swooned and then recovered enough to
win the NFC South. These teams mirror
each other in style and personality. The
box score from the previous game reflects that reality.
Seattle
mustered 310 total yards and Carolina churned out 226 total yards. Each team had a pair of turnovers and Seattle
had three more penalties than Carolina.
However, the box score does not reveal the total truth about that
meeting. Graham Gano kicked a 46 yard
field goal to give Carolina a 9-6 lead with 4:46 left in the game. Russell Wilson than led Seattle on an
eighty-yard drive that was capped by Wilson’s 23-yard touchdown throw to Luke
Wilson.
Russell
Wilson went 4-4 for 53 yards throwing and had two rushes for an additional 21
yards on that final drive. His passer
rating for the nine play game winning drive was 158.3. For those of you scoring at home, that is a
perfect passer rating. Russell Wilson
will again be a difference maker for Seattle.
Moreover, the 12th man will have an impact on a mechanically
shaky Cam Newton.
The Pick: Seattle- 24 Carolina- 13
Dallas (13-4) vs. Green Bay (12-4) 1:05 P.M. Fox
The
Cowboys’ team shop is selling Ice Bowl II shirts for this match-up. That is odd since Dallas lost that memorable
contest on Bart Starr’s quarterback sneak at the gun. Yet, it makes sense for Dallas to paint this
game as a resumption of the Ice Bowl.
NFL football in 1967 focused on running the ball and that is what Dallas
does well. The Cowboys are second in the
NFL in rushing this season and are facing Green Bay’s eleventh-ranked run
defense. That should mean that Tony Romo,
and his tender back, will not be flung onto the famed frozen tundra of Lambeau
Field often. This is contingent on
Dallas staying within contact of Green Bay on the scoreboard.
Since
the Packers have the best quarterback in the NFL and the top ranked passing
game in the NFL, Dallas’ twenty-sixth ranked pass defense is faced with a considerable
challenge. Additionally, the Cowboys
will likely be down three key defensive players. If linebacker Rolando McClain, defensive end
Jeremy Mincey, and defensive tackle Terrell McClain miss the game, Dallas faces
long odds. Shortages on the defensive
line would be particularly problematic because that would allow Eddie Lacy room
to run and limit the fourth quarter effectiveness of Dallas’ pass rush. Some Cowboys fans may feel that Aaron Rodgers’
calf injury could be limiting enough to open the door for the upset. Based on his performance in Week 17 against Detroit,
that is an unlikely scenario.
The Pick:
Green Bay- 30 Dallas- 20
Indianapolis (12-5) vs. Denver (12-4) 4:40 P.M. CBS
Andrew
Luck vs. Peyton Manning is the obvious storyline here. Luck replaced Manning in Indy and now finds
his path to playoff glory obstructed by the man that Colt’s owner, Jim Irsay,
deemed expendable. Luck is an ascending
talent who already ranks among the top five quarterbacks in the NFL. Manning, at 38, is facing Father Time as well
as blitzes. It is a juicy angle but
each quarterback will need offensive help.
Dan
“Boom” Herron has provided a lift to Indianapolis’ ground attack. Herron has an impressive 4.5 yards per attempt
in 2014. He has displayed the short
yardage tenacity that made him a crowd favorite at Ohio State. Herron actually topped his yards per attempt
average against his former team, when he went for 56 yards on 12 carries (4.67
Y/A) with a touchdown. Herron added 10
receptions, on 11 targets, for an additional 85 yards. This is the empirical reasoning behind Trent
Richardson’s recent decrease in playing time.
When
the Colts balance their offensive attack, they become a dynamic unit. Despite leading the league in drops, the
Colts’ receivers will provide big plays as long as they are not facing cover
two or cover three looks. The surefire
way to make Denver’s defensive coordinator, Jack Del Rio slide a safety into
the box is to feed Herron and frustrate Denver’s linebackers with drag routes
by T.Y. Hilton. Once the line of
scrimmage is crowded, Luck will have the opportunity to strike deep.
Of course, two things will frustrate
Indianapolis’ offense. The first is
Denver’s pass defense (4th in the NFL), which is better equipped
than most defenses to handle Indianapolis’ first ranked passing game. The second is Emmanuel Sanders. With Vontae Davis likely following Demaryius
Thomas for most of the game, the Colts will be challenged to find a way to
contain Sanders. Cornerback Greg Toler
has the talent but is limited with a knee injury. Look for Manning to emphasize the running
game while using Sanders to build a quick lead.
In a repeat of last year’s Divisional loss to New England and this
season’s opening week loss to Denver, Indy will be forced to abandon the run
due to an early deficit and Luck’s heroics will fall short.
The Pick: Denver- 31 Indianapolis- 24