Ken Stabler Deserves the Hall of Fame

            Ken Stabler’s death at age 69 from colon cancer has sparked numerous commentaries of a bygone era.  The NFL in the 1970’s was almost a different league from what it has become now.  Parity was but a sparkle in then Commissioner Pete Rozelle’s eye, player safety was an afterthought, and the now outdated adage that when you throw the ball only three things can happen and two of them are bad was considered football gospel.  The decade belonged to the rough and ready Steelers but started with Don Shula’s bruising Miami teams.  The precise and clinical Dallas teams of that era, piloted by Tom Landry’s genius, spawned future schemes.  Yet, it is the vagabond Oakland Raiders who embodied the decade. 

            The Raiders represented the undesirable element in the NFL to many fans in the 1970’s and maverick owner Al Davis gleefully played the villain.  However, Davis needed a field general for his rebel army.  As so often happens, Stabler was in the right place at the right time.  Stabler’s blend of on the field skill and off the field rebel rousing set the tone for the entire franchise.  The Snake could spend all Saturday night in the bars and then lead his team to a fourth quarter victory on Sunday.  There are numerous stories about Stabler’s accomplishments on and off the field.  Make no mistake, perhaps only Bobby Layne and Joe Namath are former or current NFL quarterbacks who can equal his accomplishments in both departments.  However, that line of thought does not answer the biggest question.  Why is Ken Stabler not in the Hall of Fame?

            Of course, anti-Raider bias accounts for some of this oversight.  Now the problem is that his passing numbers do not look impressive.  Despite finishing in the top ten of the NFL in passing yards, touchdown passes, and completion percentage every season from 1973 to 1979 Stabler’s career numbers are not eye popping.  Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan are current players who have passed Stabler, who is 54^th all-time in career passing yards.  Jay Cutler and Joe Flacco will pass him on the list this season as well.  Making matters worse is the fact that Jon Kitna, Jake Plummer, Brad Johnson, and Rich Gannon are all ahead of Stabler.  All of this misses the point.  The name directly in front of the Snake on that list, a scant 51 yards in front, is Terry Bradshaw.

 

            The 1970’s were not a time for prolific passing.  It was a time for legendary games.  Winning is how quarterbacks are judged, and winning clutch games carries additional weight.  While Stabler’s one Super Bowl win does not equal Bradshaw’s four, it is more than Fran Tarkenton can claim.  In fact, Oakland’s victory in Super Bowl XI is one of the reasons the Vikings never won the Super Bowl.  No list of the NFL’s greatest games is complete without three installments from Ken Stabler.  The Sea of Hands ended Miami’s bid for a three-peat.  The Holy Roller forced a rules change and perfectly captured Stabler’s competitive ingenuity.  The Ghost to the Post sent the game into what would become a double overtime road playoff win for Oakland.  These plays represent more than a fleeting appearance on the NFL stage.  They represent a great player with a knack for finding the open man.  Ken Stabler left the game with a Hall of Fame caliber legacy.  Stabler may be gone, but the Veteran’s Committee still has his open candidacy.  It is time for Canton to find the open man.

Pete Rose, Andrew McCutchen, and Priorities in Baseball

Major League Baseball has a new commissioner.  Rob Manfred has taken over for Bud Selig.  Manfred faces a host of issues.  Baseball is popular but in today’s economy, it is thrive or die, as NASCAR is discovering.  Manfred must continue to grow the game while facing issues such as maintain competitive balance with free agency, the potential influx of Cuban talent into MLB, enforcing the pace of play rules, redefining the strike zone, his rather ominous reference to eliminating defensive shifts and the economics of youth baseball (more on this later).  Of course, the squeaky wheel gets the oil and no wheel squeaks more avidly than Pete Rose.

            We are all familiar with Charlie Hustle’s tale of woe.  After a distinguished career as a player, he retired as the all-time hits leader in MLB history, Rose became the manager for the Cincinnati Reds.  In August of 1989 Rose was accused of betting on baseball, including his own team, while he was playing and managing.  Then Commissioner Bart Giamatti banned Rose from baseball for life with no contention for future reinstatement.  There is conflicting evidence as to if Rose ever bet against his team.  He vehemently denies this but he also spent 15 years denying that he gambled on baseball.  Then in 2004, in an effort to facilitate reinstatement and to move merchandise, Rose came clean in his book My Prison without Bars. 

            Now Rose has announced that he would like to speak with Manfred about reinstatement and the possibility that Rose would be eligible for the Hall of Fame.  Selig steadfastly denied Rose reentry into the game for 25 years, which makes this immediate end-run appeal by Rose feel particularly childish.  Just as a child asks his dad for permission after his mom has denied it, Rose is immediately asking the new guardian of baseball to cut him some slack.

 

            Rose is a cult figure among baseball fans.  Popular sentiment favors allowing him back into the game and into the Hall of Fame despite the fact that he violated a sacrosanct rule of the game.  Since 1919, betting on baseball has meant lifetime banishment.  The rules do not allow exceptions to be made and to do would create a dangerous precedent, particularly since the internet has made gambling instantly accessible and infinitely hard to detect.  Manfred should not spend his limited and valuable time on Pete Rose, especially not when current players are raising awareness on issues that truly affect the health of the game.  This must read article by Pittsburgh Pirates centerfielder Andrew McCutchen is an eye opening evaluation of the current flaws in youth baseball.  After reading the article one must ask, who is more deserving of a chance? Is it Pete Rose, self-professed gambler who bet on baseball, or is it the economically dis-advantaged kids who may never get a chance to play the National Pastime at the highest levels?

Super Bowl Pick

New England (12-4) vs. Seattle (12-4) 6:30 P.M. NBC

            At the start of the 2014 season, the Patriots and Seahawks were two of the likeliest teams to win the Super Bowl.  Now both teams find themselves within reach of notable achievements.  Seattle is seeking to become the first team to win back-to-back titles since New England in 2003 and 2004.  The Patriots are looking to win a fourth Lombardi Trophy with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady at the helm.  Chuck Noll is the only coach to claim four Super Bowls and only Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana have won four Super Bowls as a starting quarterback.  Each squad is seeking rarified air.  Ultimately, the winner of the Super Bowl will be the team who exploits mismatches consistently.  So let us turn our attention to the X’s and O’s of a fascinatingly even showdown.

            When Seattle has the ball, they will face the best man-to-man coverage secondary in the NFL.  This would ostensibly highlight Seattle’s perceived offensive weakness, their receiving corps.  The reality is that their offensive line is their weakest offensive unit.  However, the idea that Doug Baldwin is going to have a big statistical game against Darrelle Revis or Brandon Browner is laughable.  However, watch enough Seattle game tape from the last two seasons and a theme emerges, when a big play is needed Baldwin or Jermaine Kearse deliver.  Look for a handful of important completions to Seattle’s maligned receivers.

            Those completions may well come due to Russell Wilson’s mobility.  He led NFL quarterbacks in rushing and the popular description of his mobility is that he leaves the pocket with a plan.  New England is stout in the middle of the defensive line with Vince Wilfork so look for them to use their defensive ends to set the edge as much as rush the passer.  Setting the edge will limit Wilson’s opportunity to scramble and it will likely mean he is forced to give the ball to Marshawn Lynch on zone read plays.  With the ball handed off, Patriots’ linebacker Jamie Collins, who will likely be a spy against Wilson, will be free to attack the ball carrier.  On paper, the Seahawks will have difficulty moving the ball but as the Packers can attest, somehow the Seahawks find a way.

            When New England has the ball, they will be facing the best defense in the league.  New England’s receivers have the same skill set as Seattle’s receivers.  They find ways to get open and make the necessary plays.  Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Brandon LaFell will not win many matchups with any members of Seattle’s secondary.  However, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels excels at dictating matchups.  Specifically, he ensures that his quick receivers find themselves running routes against linebackers or into vacated zones.  The problem is that Seattle is a disciplined unit who is unlikely to overreact to Rob Gronkowski, which will limit the number of vacated zones and busted coverages.  In addition, the Seahawk linebackers are very fast and in Bobby Wagner’s case, very adept in pass coverage.

            Gronkowski is New England’s one sure-fire physical matchup advantage.  The Patriots specialize in utilizing Gronkowski on seam routes against zone coverage; particularly cover three looks.  Seattle is a base cover three defense.  Gronkowski will be open occasionally down the seams but the throwing window will be very tight against Wagner and Earl Thomas, who is the second best defensive player in the NFL.  Brady will need time to set his feet in order to maximize these opportunities.  The key for Seattle is to make Brady uncomfortable, which means Michael Bennett and Bruce Irvin will need big games. 

            This leads into the ultimate key to the game for New England.  They must pound the rock.  Even if LeGarrette Blount, Shane Vereen, Jonas Gray, or whoever else the Patriots have unearthed at running back is not gaining substantial yardage, abandoning the run will guarantee a loss.  Just ask Mike McCarthy.  The problem is that this is Brady’s third attempt to match his childhood idol, Joe Montana, with four rings.  It seems unlikely that Brady will remain content to pound the ball in apparent futility if Seattle gets a consequential lead.  The margin for error is razor thin in this game and assuming turnovers and penalties are essentially even, Brady’s ability to submit himself to the game plan may be the deciding factor.

The Pick: Seattle-23 New England- 20

Championship Sunday Game Picks

Green Bay (12-4) vs. Seattle (12-4) 3:05 P.M. FOX

            Do not make the mistake of assuming that Seattle cannot lose at home.  Dallas knocked off Seattle this season at CenturyLink Field. The Cowboys relied on the ground game to secure their 30-24 victory.  Of course, that game was played in Week 6.  The ensuing weeks have seen Seattle’s defense regain their health and their championship form.  The Packers will need Eddie Lacy to play the game of his life in order to wring enough rushing yards to win.  Rushing yards are a byproduct of the path to victory over Seattle.  The key is actually rushing attempts.  Balanced play calling forces Seattle’s linebackers and Earl Thomas to play both facets of the game.  When allowed to key exclusively on the run or pass, the front seven becomes almost impossible to stop.  When Thomas is given similar free reign he is unstoppable.

   

            This all leads to the key to the game.  Aaron Rodgers must maintain run/ pass balance.  Other aspects of the game will garner attention from most analysts.  There are sound points like how it is true that both teams typically win turnover margin so that looms large.  Additionally, Randall Cobb, who leads the NFL in every major statistical category in receiving from the slot, should be Rodgers’ primary weapon.  These are valid points and there will be the requisite belaboring of Rodgers’ health.

 

Ultimately, Rodgers’ game management will determine this game.  Russell Wilson will put up enough points and in order for Green Bay to control the flow of the game, and the crowd, they must dictate the game thru rushing attempts.  Last season the Packers lost a hard fought game against the 49ers because Rodgers consistently checked out of runs in short yardage situations, particularly in the fourth quarter.  The only reason Green Bay’s defense was in position to allow the game winning drive that Colin Kaepernick engineered was because Rodgers’ audibles left points on the field.  Despite the monster game that Lacy was having against San Francisco, just recall the images of Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman bouncing off Lacy and grasping at air, Rodgers failed to trust his offensive line and running back.  History says Brett Favre’s former understudy will once again trust his arm in critical situations.

The Pick: Seattle- 27 Green Bay- 23

Indianapolis (11-5) vs. New England (12-4) 6:40 P.M. CBS

            It is easy and perhaps justifiable to hate the Patriots.  After all, they seemingly are always here this time of year.  In fact, if you disregard Tom Brady’s rookie year and the year he lost to a torn ACL, he has led New England to the AFC Championship game nine out of thirteen years.  The eight previous trips have yielded five Super Bowl trips and three Lombardi trophies.  That level of consistency naturally builds animosity from other fan bases, which brings us to Indianapolis.

            Perhaps no other fan base is so naturally opposed to New England’s empire.  More seasons than Colts fans care to remember have ended with Bill Belichick on the opposite sideline.  It is true that the 2006 AFC Championship game was a come from behind classic that set the stage for the Indianapolis Colts (note the emphasis on the city), and Peyton Manning, to win their only Super Bowl.  Just last year the Patriots trounced the Colts in the Divisional round.  So now, it is Andrew Luck’s opportunity to return the favor.

 

            This postseason has been a breakout pair of games for Luck.  That is assuming it is possible to breakout when you are already a top five player in the league.  Luck has eliminated the only vice in his game by limiting his occasionally prolific turnovers.  Look for him to continue to carry an undermanned Colts team.  Belichick knows that Luck is ever dangerous both in and out of the pocket.  Perhaps even more alarming for New England’s defense is the sixteen touchdown passes that Luck has on third down this season.  In the playoffs, snatching a touchdown from a defense that was one play from taking the offense off the field is monumental.  Luck will play well in this game but it will not be enough.  The Patriots are a talented team peaking at the right time.  
            The Pick: New England- 31 Indianapolis- 27

NFL Divisional Playoffs Game Picks

Baltimore (11-6) vs. New England (12-4) 4:35 P.M. NBC

            The last two playoff meetings between these teams were classic games.  New England won 23-20 in 2012 and Baltimore triumphed 28-13 in 2013 on their way to a Super Bowl title.  Logically, playoff duels from two or more years ago are not indicative of a present outcome.  The Patriots have the higher ranked offense (3rd vs. 8th in points scored), the better defense (8^th vs 9^th in points allowed), and a plus twelve turnover margin compared to Baltimore’s plus two margin. 

            Therefore, the Patriots are the logical choice.  But how often is football logical?  Football is an emotionally charged game that rewards aggression.  Last week in Pittsburgh, the Ravens illustrated how an emotionally sharp team can execute a game plan to perfection.  It is likely that Darrelle Revis will shadow Steve Smith.  If that is the case, Joe Flacco will lose his possession receiver but gain opportunities with Torrey Smith downfield.  Baltimore has stressed what they call “splash” plays.  Last week the defense, particularly Terrell Suggs, provide the splash.  Look for Flacco to play within himself and capitalize on his splash play opportunities.  

The Pick: Baltimore- 27 New England- 23

Carolina (8-8-1) vs. Seattle (12-4) 8:15 P.M. Fox

            Honestly, on paper this is the simplest game of the week.  Some may point to their prior meeting this year, which Seattle won 13-9 in Charlotte.  Since that game, Seattle has switched off cruise control and regained their swagger.  Carolina swooned and then recovered enough to win the NFC South.  These teams mirror each other in style and personality.  The box score from the previous game reflects that reality.

            Seattle mustered 310 total yards and Carolina churned out 226 total yards.  Each team had a pair of turnovers and Seattle had three more penalties than Carolina.  However, the box score does not reveal the total truth about that meeting.  Graham Gano kicked a 46 yard field goal to give Carolina a 9-6 lead with 4:46 left in the game.  Russell Wilson than led Seattle on an eighty-yard drive that was capped by Wilson’s 23-yard touchdown throw to Luke Wilson. 

            Russell Wilson went 4-4 for 53 yards throwing and had two rushes for an additional 21 yards on that final drive.  His passer rating for the nine play game winning drive was 158.3.  For those of you scoring at home, that is a perfect passer rating.  Russell Wilson will again be a difference maker for Seattle.  Moreover, the 12^th man will have an impact on a mechanically shaky Cam Newton. 

The Pick: Seattle- 24 Carolina- 13

Dallas (13-4) vs. Green Bay (12-4) 1:05 P.M. Fox

            The Cowboys’ team shop is selling Ice Bowl II shirts for this match-up.  That is odd since Dallas lost that memorable contest on Bart Starr’s quarterback sneak at the gun.  Yet, it makes sense for Dallas to paint this game as a resumption of the Ice Bowl.  NFL football in 1967 focused on running the ball and that is what Dallas does well.  The Cowboys are second in the NFL in rushing this season and are facing Green Bay’s eleventh-ranked run defense.  That should mean that Tony Romo, and his tender back, will not be flung onto the famed frozen tundra of Lambeau Field often.  This is contingent on Dallas staying within contact of Green Bay on the scoreboard.

            Since the Packers have the best quarterback in the NFL and the top ranked passing game in the NFL, Dallas’ twenty-sixth ranked pass defense is faced with a considerable challenge.  Additionally, the Cowboys will likely be down three key defensive players.  If linebacker Rolando McClain, defensive end Jeremy Mincey, and defensive tackle Terrell McClain miss the game, Dallas faces long odds.  Shortages on the defensive line would be particularly problematic because that would allow Eddie Lacy room to run and limit the fourth quarter effectiveness of Dallas’ pass rush.  Some Cowboys fans may feel that Aaron Rodgers’ calf injury could be limiting enough to open the door for the upset.  Based on his performance in Week 17 against Detroit, that is an unlikely scenario.  

The Pick: Green Bay- 30 Dallas- 20

Indianapolis (12-5) vs. Denver (12-4) 4:40 P.M. CBS

            Andrew Luck vs. Peyton Manning is the obvious storyline here.  Luck replaced Manning in Indy and now finds his path to playoff glory obstructed by the man that Colt’s owner, Jim Irsay, deemed expendable.  Luck is an ascending talent who already ranks among the top five quarterbacks in the NFL.  Manning, at 38, is facing Father Time as well as blitzes.  It is a juicy angle but each quarterback will need offensive help.

            Dan “Boom” Herron has provided a lift to Indianapolis’ ground attack.  Herron has an impressive 4.5 yards per attempt in 2014.  He has displayed the short yardage tenacity that made him a crowd favorite at Ohio State.  Herron actually topped his yards per attempt average against his former team, when he went for 56 yards on 12 carries (4.67 Y/A) with a touchdown.  Herron added 10 receptions, on 11 targets, for an additional 85 yards.  This is the empirical reasoning behind Trent Richardson’s recent decrease in playing time. 

            When the Colts balance their offensive attack, they become a dynamic unit.  Despite leading the league in drops, the Colts’ receivers will provide big plays as long as they are not facing cover two or cover three looks.  The surefire way to make Denver’s defensive coordinator, Jack Del Rio slide a safety into the box is to feed Herron and frustrate Denver’s linebackers with drag routes by T.Y. Hilton.  Once the line of scrimmage is crowded, Luck will have the opportunity to strike deep.

            Of course, two things will frustrate Indianapolis’ offense.  The first is Denver’s pass defense (4^th in the NFL), which is better equipped than most defenses to handle Indianapolis’ first ranked passing game.  The second is Emmanuel Sanders.  With Vontae Davis likely following Demaryius Thomas for most of the game, the Colts will be challenged to find a way to contain Sanders.  Cornerback Greg Toler has the talent but is limited with a knee injury.  Look for Manning to emphasize the running game while using Sanders to build a quick lead.  In a repeat of last year’s Divisional loss to New England and this season’s opening week loss to Denver, Indy will be forced to abandon the run due to an early deficit and Luck’s heroics will fall short.  
The Pick: Denver- 31 Indianapolis- 24