NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks

Arizona (11-5) vs. Carolina (7-8-1) 4:35 PM   ESPN

The records are deceptive for this first Wild Card matchup.  Arizona is a dangerous team when they have solid quarterback play but injuries to Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton have left them with adequate quarterback play at best.  In Week 17, Ryan Lindley threw for 316 yards and a pair of touchdowns.  He also tossed three interceptions and struggled to move the ball in the second half.  Arizona’s offensive issues are compounded by a rushing defense that has struggled of late.  Arizona has allowed 267 yards and 206 yards rushing in their last two games.  The question is, can Carolina’s ground game match Seattle and San Francisco’s output?

The Panthers have had success over the last two games on the ground.  They gained 209 yards against Cleveland and 194 yards against Atlanta.  However, if one digs deeper you notice that Carolina is 13^th in the NFL in rushing yards per attempt.  Arizona struggled against Seattle (1^st in yards per attempt) and San Francisco (4^th in yards per attempt).  This suggests that Carolina is amassing yards with reps not profound success.  Look for Arizona to clog the running lanes, match Patrick Peterson up with Kelvin Benjamin, and dare Cam Newton to win from the pocket.  Momentum and home field are in Carolina’s favor but Arizona has the coach of the year in Bruce Arians.  Arians’ magic touch will propel Arizona past Carolina in a low scoring physical showdown.  The Pick: Arizona- 23 Carolina-16

Baltimore (10-6) vs. Pittsburgh (11-5) 8:15 PM   NBC

            Le’Veon Bell is not a NFL MVP candidate but his injury and subsequent limited availability for this AFC North grudge match may go a long way to illustrating his worth.  Bell gained 2,215 yards from scrimmage.  Antonio Brown led the NFL in receiving with 1,698 yards but Bell’s 1,361 rushing yards combined with his 83 receptions for 854 yards contributed heavily to Brown’s explosive downfield production.  Baltimore will not need to creep their safeties into the box to contain Dri Archer or Ben Tate on the ground.  That means Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes will rest on Ben Roethlisberger’s shoulders.

            Baltimore’s best running back, Justin Forsett, will be available.  Potentially, his 17-carry 119-yard performance against Cleveland has gotten him back into rhythm.  If Forsett is not productive on the ground then Joe Flacco will be tasked with matching Roethlisberger.  Torrey Smith and Steve Smith form a solid tandem but Pittsburgh’s receiving corps is more explosive.  In what may devolve into a very un-AFC North like aerial duel, Brown, Markus Wheaton, and Martavis Bryant will prove to be the difference.  The Pick: Pittsburgh- 37 Baltimore- 31

Cincinnati (10-5-1) vs. Indianapolis (11-5) 1:05 PM   CBS

            The Week 7 meeting between these squads was a one sided affair.  Indy won 27-0 in what was their fifth consecutive win.  Since that meeting, the Colts have been beatable, the Bengals have improved, and perhaps most importantly, Andy Dalton has guided his team to a primetime win.  Beating Denver 37-28 on Monday Night Football was viewed as the first of many big game wins for the Bengals.  Then Cincy dropped their AFC North title showdown with Pittsburgh by the score of 27-17.  More puzzling was that the Bengals once again looked listless and were mistake prone in a must win national television audience game.

            Admittedly, Andrew Luck has been shaky with ball security lately.  His sixteen interceptions are not as concerning as his thirteen fumbles.  The Colts’ defense has been solid against bad teams recently and struggled against Dallas in Week 16.  It is unlikely that Indianapolis will duplicate their 27-0 blasting of Cincinnati.  If A.J. Green were healthy and not likely to be covered by Vontae Davis, the Bengals would have a chance at winning.  Jeremy Hill will break some runs and ease the pressure on Dalton but Luck simply will not let Indy lose this game.  The Pick: Indianapolis- 31 Cincinnati- 23

Detroit (11-5) vs. Dallas (12-4) 4:40 PM   Fox

            Detroit’s run defense versus the Dallas running attack is the epitome of a strength on strength battle.  The Lions’ run defense is first in the league in yards allowed and yards per attempt.  The Cowboys’ ground attack is second and third in those respective categories.  Ndamukong Suh avoiding a one game suspension is pivotal to Detroit’s chances in this game.  Suh has elevated his play for his contract year.  In the past, a wham blocking scheme (The central component of this is a tight end pulling into the backfield and whamming a penetrating defensive lineman. This seals the backside of the play and creates natural cutback lanes for the running back.) has been used to great effect on Detroit’s aggressively penetrating defensive line.  Suh’s improved awareness has limited this scheme’s effectiveness.  Jason Witten is a capable enough blocker to utilize wham blocks but Dallas will likely rely on their plethora of talented lineman (particularly Zach Martin) to pull and trap Detroit’s defenders into submission.

            If the running game is stagnate for Dallas they have a red hot Tony Romo to fall back on for production.  Dallas will move the ball some and that is troubling for the Lions.  Matthew Stafford is not playing well at the moment.  Pro Football Focus graded his Week 17 performance against Green Bay as a -3.3 (for comparisons sake Aaron Rodgers graded out at +3.4).  Stafford had a completion percentage under 50%, which was reflected by his 8-17 for 78 yards line on passes within ten yards of the line of scrimmage.  If Stafford cannot complete the easy underneath throws against Dallas it will be a long day for Detroit.  The Pick: Dallas- 30 Detroit- 17

Sporting Joe NFL Power Poll: Week 16

At this moment, Week 17 and the playoffs appear to be an exercise toward an unavoidable outcome, Seahawks vs Patriots in the Super Bowl.  History and common sense says that such an obvious conclusion is bound to be proven wrong.  On Sunday, four games with playoff implications for both squads will be contested and another six games will feature playoff implications for one team.  Week 17 will not serve as another stepping-stone to the coronation of pre-ordained conference champions.  Instead, settle in for another week of unpredictable NFL action.

1)      Seattle-  After Seattle’s 35-6 drubbing of Arizona in Glendale it would be a smart move for Seattle fans to plan on a return trip to this year’s Super Bowl host city.           

2)      New England-  Given Bill Belichick’s reputation and the culture of the “Patriot Way” it is surprising to learn that after sixteen weeks New England has been whistled for 115 penalties while their opponents have only 87 infractions.  New England has gifted the opposition 317 yards via penalty more than they have received, so far this season.

                      

3)      Green Bay-  The Packers dispatched the Bucs despite Aaron Rodgers being under the weather but Green Bay will need Rodgers at 100% health the rest of the season in order to have a deep playoff run.

4)      Denver- It is cliché, but winning football comes from the trenches.  Denver’s run oriented offense has masked the offensive line’s deficiencies but quality defensive fronts, such as Cincinnati’s, will make a return to the Super Bowl difficult for Denver.

  

5)      Dallas-  It is officially a bizarro December when Tony Romo, ten touchdowns and no interceptions this month, is legitimately bandied about as a MVP candidate.

    

6)      Indianapolis- Sunday’s 42-7 loss does not derail the season for the Colts.  It did underscore how integral T.Y. Hilton is to Indy’s fortunes.

7)      Detroit-  The NFL has suspended Center Dominic Raiola one game for his leg stomp of Chicago defensive tackle Ego Ferguson.  The suspension will impact Detriot’s performance against Green Bay when they meet to decide the winner of the NFC North.  More important will be the in-house handling of the situation by head coach Jim Caldwell.  The handling, or lack thereof, of poor player behavior contributed to Jim Schwartz losing his position as Detroit’s head coach.

   

8)      Pittsburgh- Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell grab the attention in Pittsburgh.  However, in a must win showdown against Kansas City, Heath Miller’s seven catches for 68 yards moved the chains in critical moments and reminded football fans why he is a Steel City favorite.

      

9)      Cincinnati-  The knock on Cincy has been an inability to win primetime/ playoff games.  Cincinnati’s bamboozling of Denver on Monday night in a 37-28 win shows progress.  Now the Bengals must continue that growth in this week’s AFC North division championship tilt against the Steelers.

10) Arizona- Bruce Arains has demonstrated that he can coach offense as well as any person in the league but using rookie quarterback Logan Thomas is pushing the envelope.  It would be foolish to expect Jim Harbaugh’s last game with the Prospectors to be anything less than a full effort.

Sporting Joe NFL Power Poll: Week 15

Week 16’s late game slate is full of enticing matchups.  The Monday night game between Denver and Cincinnati will give fans a chance to gauge where the Bengals actually rank in the AFC pecking order.  Sunday night’s contest will decide the winner of the NFC West.  It will be an upset if Seattle does not defeat Arizona.  However, it is the Sunday afternoon (4:25 P.M.) showdown between Indianapolis and Dallas that is the most intriguing game.  This Super Bowl V re-match ideally will not be as sloppy as the original.  Super Bowl V saw Baltimore boot a 32-yard field goal with five seconds remaining in the game to win the “Stupor Bowl.”  Baltimore accounted for seven of the eleven turnovers in the game, while Dallas chipped in ten penalties for 133 yards.  However, Andrew Luck’s current ball security issues and Tony Romo’s love of the ill-advised throw could turn this game into a mirror image of Super Bowl V. 

     

1)      Seattle- The race for the NFC’s top seed is wide open.  If the Seahawks once again claim home field advantage, then Seattle will be the first franchise to repeat as Super Bowl champions since New England in 2003 and 2004.

        

2)      New England-  It is fitting that Rex Ryan’s last home game as head coach of the Jets will be played against the Patriots.

              

3)      Green Bay- Losing to Buffalo was not unforeseen but it wounds Green Bay’s title aspirations.

4)      Denver-  If Peyton Manning had not left Sunday’s game briefly due to injury the Broncos, who are quietly piecing it all together, would have leapt over the Packers.

  

5)      Indianapolis- The Colts are the NFL’s playoff enigma.  Plausible scenarios exist for Indianapolis to go on a Super Bowl run or for Indianapolis to lose on Wildcard Weekend.

  

6)      Dallas- Dallas wrenched control of the NFC East from Philly with a 38-27 win.  Now the Cowboys must follow that success with a win against the Colts in Dallas, where they are 3-4 this season.

 

7)      Detroit- Rookie tight end, and number ten overall draft pick, Eric Ebron has 23 receptions for 210 yards and one touchdown.  Detroit will need production from the tight end position during the stretch run.

 

8)      Arizona- It does not take Miss Cleo’s psychic powers to know that starting Ryan Lindley at quarterback against Seattle will result in lengthy periods of offensive inefficiency. 

      

9)      Philadelphia- Perhaps Chip Kelly is effusive in his praise of Oregon quarterback and Heisman winner Marcus Mariota because he is proud of his former player.  Or perhaps it is because Kelly watches Mark Sanchez practice every day.

10) Pittsburgh- If the Steelers beat the Chiefs this week; Pittsburgh will host Cincinnati in Week 17 with a division title on the line.

Sporting Joe NFL Power Poll: Week 14

Despite the unmitigated disaster that was Sunday’s 41-10 loss in the Superdome to Carolina, the Saints still possess the inside track to win the putrid NFC South.  No team from the NFC South deserves a spot in the Power Poll but playoff races merit discussion.  Currently, Atlanta is the division leader but they face a stiff road test against Pittsburgh.  If the Falcons tumble the Saints, who square off with an odious Chicago squad, are in position to ascend to the pole position.  That would set up a Week 16 showdown in the Superdome against Atlanta for the division title.  Of course, the Saints, who had won twenty straight home games under Sean Payton, have now dropped four straight in the dome.  Now it is time to turn away from the NFC South and unveil the best the NFL has to offer.  

1)      Green Bay- The Bills in Buffalo are trickier than in years past.  Plus, Kyle Orton is no stranger to facing Green Bay.

         

2)      New England- The most interesting story line from Sunday night’s game may be this nugget from Bill Belichick.

          

3)      Seattle- This is a truly scary team.  The only roadblock facing Seattle is a potential showdown on the road against Green Bay.

4)      Denver- This may be beating a dead Bronco but yet again, the running game keyed Denver’s success.  On a day when Peyton Manning appeared mortal, 14-20 for 173 yards and two interceptions, the ground game delivered ten first downs (compared to the three passing first downs) and three touchdowns.

5)      Indianapolis- The Colts are edging towards the NFL’s elite.  Hanging in and eventually beating the Browns, on a day when Cleveland’s defense played as well as it has all season, displayed Indy’s resiliency.

  

6)      Philadelphia- There may be some concern about the offense after the poorest showing of the Chip Kelly era (57 yards rushing and 82 yards passing).  Those numbers do not inspire confidence but they are indicative of Seattle’s dominance.

  

7)      Detroit- Beat Tampa Bay, check.  Now the Lions must check another box towards the postseason by defeating the Vikings.

8)      Arizona- The NFL never ceases to amaze.  NFC West leading Arizona finds itself as an underdog in St. Louis and the Cardinals must score to avoid becoming the third consecutive victim of the Rams’ shutout streak.

      

9)      Dallas- Beating Chicago on Thursday night quieted the murmurs about yet another December collapse in Dallas.  Winning at Philadelphia this week will silence those concerns.

10) Pittsburgh- The Steelers currently find themselves as the fifth seed in the playoffs.  With another match-up against Cincinnati, who they just beat 42-21, Pittsburgh controls their destiny.

Sporting Joe NFL Power Poll: Week 13

A month remains in the regular season.  In September, it was pre-ordained that Seattle and Denver would duel for the Lombardi Trophy, yet again.  As the season progressed, the reigning conference champions showed weakness.  Now each team is returning to form while Green Bay and New England’s showdown exhibited how good they are as the season enters the final quarter.  Four franchises have legitimate Super Bowl aspirations and the top four of the Power Poll reflects that reality.

1)      Green Bay- The Packers only punted once against a good Patriots defense.  The emergence of Davante Adams, six receptions for 121 yards, was instrumental to such a symphonic offensive performance.

          

2)      New England- Losing at Green Bay is not concerning.  However, repeatedly leaving Rob Ninkovich in one-on-one coverage with Randall Cobb is alarmingly poor film study.  Cobb lining up in the backfield, in order to isolate linebackers, has been a staple of the Packer offense since 2012.

             

3)      Denver- Another week and another strong showing on the ground (45 rushes for 214 yards) has Denver breathing down New England’s neck.

4)      Seattle- Bobby Wagner’s return has sparked a suddenly healthy defense.  Seattle is once again the best defense in the NFL and a repeat is increasingly likely for the Seahawks.

5)      Indianapolis- A victory against Cleveland and a Texans loss would result in the Colts winning the AFC South, something that is becoming a given for Andrew Luck and crew.

  

6)      Philadelphia- This was the hardest team to rank this week.  Demolishing Dallas portends a playoff push.  Yet, Mark Sanchez is an albatross around Philly’s neck.

7)      Detroit- the Lions are in danger of missing the postseason.  They well may need to win out in order to win the NFC North and guarantee a berth.  Fortunately, for Detroit their remaining schedule only features one game against a team with a winning record.

8)      Arizona-  Atlanta’s defense is not the fearsome obstacle that Seattle’s defense is.  That reality makes Arizona’s performance, 35 yards rushing and one for seven on third down, a disturbing trend. 

    

9)      Dallas- The Cowboys have time to reclaim the NFC East lead, that is if they do not let Philadelphia manhandle them again in week fifteen.

    

10) Cincinnati- Several teams could lay claim to this slot but Marvin Lewis separated the Bengals from the pack.  His use of a challenge flag under two minutes (it cost a time-out but unlike a traditional time-out, it gave the replay official more time to spot the twelve men on the field infraction by the Bucs) was a brilliant move that saved the game in Tampa Bay and possible Cincinnati’s postseason hopes.

Sporting Joe NFL Power Poll: Week 12

Thanksgiving football is an American tradition.  However, with often-incompetent Detroit and routinely erratic Dallas as permanent hosts an afternoon nap was often the only recourse from sloppy or dull pigskin.  This year even large doses of tryptophan should not result in an incoherent state of semi-consciousness.  Detroit faces a bounce back game against Chicago.  That game leads into a duel for control of the NFC East between Philadelphia and Dallas.  If that is not enough for you, the premier rivalry in the game will be on display as Seattle visits San Francisco in a contest that could effectively eliminate one of last season’s NFC Championship Game participants.

1)      New England- Three pertinent truths for Sunday’s showdown with Green Bay are worth mentioning.  First, Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the league right now.  Secondly, Tom Brady is one of the three best quarterbacks in NFL history (Montana and Unitas are the others).  Third, Brady achieved his place in history by winning exactly this type of game. 

           

2)      Green Bay- As the Patriot machine roles into Lambeau Packer fans should take comfort in Aaron Rodgers’ 42-10 career record at home.  Green Bay will need a historically efficient game from Rodgers in order to beat the Pats.

               

3)      Denver- The Broncos ran 35 times for 201 yards against a stingy Miami defense.  They also passed 35 times and gained 249 net passing yards.  Production aside, that type of play calling balance leads to winning football.

4)      Arizona- Losing at Seattle is not cause for alarm.  However, the mere three points that Arizona put on the scoreboard bears watching as the Drew Stanton experience marches onward.

5)      Dallas- Saying that Tony Romo gives a team a decided advantage at quarterback in a big game is absurd, unless the other team is lining Mark Sanchez up under center.  Advantage Dallas.

     

6)      Indianapolis- Newly signed return specialist Josh Cribbs displayed his talents with a 46 yard kickoff return and his 9.6 yards per return average on five punts.  A Colts offense averaging 30.3 points per game, good for fourth in the NFL, will be additionally lethal thanks to the hidden yards Cribbs will provide.

  

7)       Seattle- Sunday’s 19-3 win against a quality opponent, Arizona, felt like a vintage Seattle performance.

     

8)      Baltimore- The remaining schedule for the Ravens (vs. San Diego, @ Miami, vs. Jacksonville, @ Houston, and vs. Cleveland) is full of challenges and opportunities to work through a crowded AFC playoff picture.

      

9)      Detroit- A Matthew Stafford/ Calvin Johnson offense should score more than 15 points over two weeks.  Admittedly, the Lions were playing on the road against conference leaders but the offense must improve or the Lions risk missing the playoffs.

     

10) Miami- Losing at Denver hurt Miami’s playoff positioning but the game illustrated how much Joe Philbin’s team has improved over the last eight weeks.

How Denver Shot Themselves in the Foot in St. Louis

The NFL consistently delivers surprising results.  One of those results was St. Louis defeating Denver 22-7.  The Broncos under Peyton Manning’s quarterbacking are one of, if not the most, feared offenses in the game.  Somehow, a Rams’ team that had allowed 251 points in the nine previous games yielded a solitary touchdown to the Broncos.  Of course, every NFL team has good and bad weeks.  Perhaps a talented Rams defense simply caught the Broncos on a down week.  Bronco fans would certainly like to explain it away in such simple terms.

The game film does not offer such an easy explanation for Denver’s struggles.  The Rams have a talented defensive line.  Chris Long has been injured but St. Louis still fields a deep and tenacious front four.  It is common knowledge that the best way to defeat Manning is to pressure him.  St. Louis only had two sacks on the day but that is a deceptive statistic.  The threat of defensive pressure on Manning created an interesting dynamic for Denver’s play calling.

In an effort to avoid the pass rush, Denver utilized short drops for Manning.  Three and even some five step drops are the textbook counter move when facing an elite pass rush.  However, the Broncos outsmarted themselves.  They used the shotgun on 61 of their 67 official plays from scrimmage.  Since the shotgun places the quarterback behind the offensive line, any type of drop moves the quarterback into an edge rusher’s target zone.  The result was numerous plays where Manning was forced to throw early because he dropped into the pressure.  Additionally, Denver ran the ball a mere ten times.  The result was a Rams secondary that expected quick passes and a front four that often had Manning dropping to their preferred rush areas.

            So what does this mean?  For the Rams, it means a favorable matchup this week with San Diego.  The Chargers feature quick passes and that plays into a current strength got the Rams.  The difference will be San Diego’s wiliness to run the play.  That should keep St. Louis’ linebackers honest, which means they will not be able to cheat towards the passes lanes as they did against Denver.

 

            Denver’s formational and play calling imbalance only feeds the concern that this is not a team built for one and done football.  Some may assume that calling more running plays will solve the problem.  That is a naïve assumption.  Running from the shotgun is generally more difficult even with an aggressive offensive line and good backs.  Looking past the injuries in the backfield, Denver’s offensive line is in a less than ideal place.  Injuries and an over reliance on Manning’s arm has sapped the offensive line of the requisite tenacity.  Denver’s coaches are aware of this.  Why else bring in Richie Incognito for a workout?  Officially, the workout was to solve a depth issue but Incognito’s documented nasty streak must have intrigued John Fox and company.

            The Rams are not going to make the playoffs.  While that is disappointing, they can look back with pride on a convincing win against a talented team.  The question is if the Rams will be able to lay claim to beating a championship team.  Based on Denver’s over reliance on the shotgun and iffy offensive line play that scenario looks unlikely.