Have Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton Ruined Contract Extensions for Quarterbacks?

Then there were five.  Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton have long-term contracts with their current teams.  Those in the NFL have accepted the team friendly nature of these deals despite the initial eye raising numbers.  This leaves Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Ryan Tannehill, and Russell Wilson as signal calling members of the 2011 and 2012 draft classes who merit long-term contracts.  Each of these quarterbacks is worth the investment by their respective clubs but time will tell who breaks what has become known as the “Kaepernick contract” template.

Kaepernick limited his signing bonus to 12.328 million, which is low for a franchise quarterback.  He stands to recoup that money with his salary.  This brings us to the salient point of his contract; his salary is subject to de-escalators.  Seasons in which he does not guide the 49ers to the Super Bowl, take 80% of the snaps, or is not named 1^st or 2^nd team All-Pro by the Associated Press will cost Kaepernick money.  Additionally, Kaepernick’s deal is a year-to-year proposition for San Francisco.  The team can cut him with no salary cap penalty each spring.

Dalton has secured his future in similar terms.  His extension, despite the advertised length, is a two year 25 million dollar deal, which is equivalent to his slated salary for this year and the franchise tag next season.  Dalton has a traditional bonus structure instead of de-escalators but the net effect is the same for him.  After these next two seasons, he is also subject to a year by year no penalty cut situation.  This appears to be the new template for young franchise quarterbacks under the current collective bargaining agreement, at least until one of the remaining five challenges the system.  The question is which player will take that stand.

Russell Wilson has more leverage than the other quarterbacks do.  He was not a first round pick so he does not have a team option year to deal with and he has won a Super Bowl.  Nevertheless, it seems unlikely that he will pursue a holdout.  Wilson appears to be a consummate team guy who understands that less money for him equals greater talent around him.  Wilson, like Kaepernick, is particularly marketable and winning games translates into endorsements.  Wilson likely also noticed that Marshawn Lynch’s holdout did not yield spectacular rewards.

As for Tannehill and Griffin III, they may not have the results on the field to demand top dollar but their franchises are prone to questionable decisions regarding salary structure.  Tannehill has been solid but a revolving cast of offensive coordinators has inhibited his growth.  Griffin III has had hot streaks, a blown knee, and a feud with a two-time Super Bowl winning head coach.  Prudence should be the word but when has that ever been Dan Snyder’s style?

That leaves the most intriguing and best-positioned pair.  Newton appears to be girding himself for a showdown.  By virtue of being a number one overall pick, he already has made more money.  That bumps the base level of a deal upwards.  It is highly unlikely that he will settle for a Kaepernick style deal much less a Kaepernick style insurance policy.  (This is the link; you have to read it to believe how lopsided this is in favor of the 49ers.)  The problem for Super Cam is that his G.M. Dave Gettleman has not had a super offseason.  A dearth of wideout talent may limit Newton’s statistical bargaining power.

             As luck would have it, the Colts do not have a shortage of offensive weapons.  Andrew Luck could easily maximize his statistics, postseason resume, and the fact that he is the best fifth best quarterback in the NFL right now (bonus points if you can guess the four that Sporting Joe ranks ahead of Luck) into a monstrous deal.  Peyton Manning set such a precedent in Indianapolis and he did not win a postseason game in his second season, much less have the second largest postseason comeback in NFL history.  However, it is reasonable that Luck took note of how Manning’s contract limited the Colt’s defense and as such their winning potential.  Luck’s payday will follow Newton’s eradication of the “Kaepernick contract” template but he will not break the bank like Newton.  Newton will set the standard for young franchise quarterbacks in terms of money.  Luck will set the standard in terms of on-field success.