Cooperstown at the Bat

Baseball has a problem.  Well, to be accurate baseball has several problems, an aging fan base, slow play, and the ever-changing “unwritten code” among them.  However, the Hall of Fame enshrinement highlighted another problem.  Cooperstown is not the idyllic baseball sanctuary that a Hall of Fame should be for players and fans.  Controversy from the field has bled into the balloting process.

Changes made to the balloting process by the Hall of Fame, the first such changes since 1991, have resurrected the baseball story that never fades away, steroids.  Previously, recently retired players were eligible for the Hall of Fame ballot for fifteen years.  That number is now ten years.  The timing of this decision raised eyebrows.

 

Officially, this move eases the glut of ballot eligible players.  The bonus for some voters is that they have shortened the immediate Hall of Fame eligibility of notable steroid users.  Mark McGuire has been on the ballot seven times and needed the additional five years to have any hope of raising his balloting percentage from this 2013’s 16.9 percent to the 75 percent required for induction.  Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds have only appeared on two ballots apiece.  This means that the two best natural talents implicated by steroids have eight years to crack Cooperstown.

            It is a natural conclusion to believe that an extra five years of eligibility would have provided the distance from the steroid controversy, and the voter turnover, to allow some of the tainted talents to enter the Hall.  The new process will likely saddle the veteran’s committee with the decision making process.  The advocates for banning and the advocates for allowing steroid users into the Hall of Fame each have compelling arguments.  That is not the issue.  Steroid debate fatigue among casual fans is the problem.  The Hall of Fame already has the tedious “tradition” of never inducting a player unanimously.  The Hall of Fame is now also responsible for passing the steroid question onto another committee.

The NFL Gets It Right (and Then Gets It Wrong)

The NFL Draft has changed drastically in the last year.  The date of the Draft is in flux and it will no longer be in New York City.  Either Chicago or Los Angeles will host the 2015 NFL Draft.  These changes are cosmetic.  Another announced change will have a lasting impact on the NFL.

 

The procedure for underclassmen to declare for the Draft has been considerably and quietly overhauled.  Previously, an underclassman could request a draft grade evaluation from the NFL.  This evaluation would cover the first three rounds.  Now prospects will be informed if they are slotted in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft.  This is an intelligent response to the 98 underclassmen that entered the 2014 Draft.  Many watched their stock plummet and 37 of those players went undrafted.  Louis Nix III went from a consensus mid first round grade to the third round.  Fortunately, Nix found a home in Houston but his inexplicable fall illustrates the vagaries of the drafting process.

Any step that limits the number of athletes who ill-advisedly forego their education for the NFL dream is a positive step.  Leaving college to be plunged into the uncertain depths of rookie free agency rarely pays off as well for the player as an additional season on campus.  Of course, the NFL benefits from this as well.  Unprepared prospects staying in school enriches the depth of the next draft class.  A win-win for the NCAA and NFL is also a winning proposition for the players and the fans, at least in this instance.

Unfortunately, there is a second component of the new procedure.  The NFL will now only grade five underclassmen per school.  This translates into players at talent-laden schools, such as LSU, who had six underclassmen declare in 2014, not receiving any guidance as to their draft stock.  Everyone, aside from the average twenty year old, knows that the average twenty year old does not have the optimal decision making process.  Asking an underclassman who has emptied himself physically, mentally, and emotionally to press pause and return to school with his NFL dream in sight is counter intuitive.  Deprived of an official evaluation players will listen to agents and friends for advice.

           The two round advisement is good but limiting the number of athletes who have access to that information is self-defeating.  Men who have watched their families struggle in order to support them are desperate to return the favor.  It is no rarity for a draftee to announce that his first NFL paycheck will pay family bills, buy mom a new house, or move his family to a better neighborhood.  Restricting information may lead to more gambling among underclassmen despite the best intentions of the NFL.

The Circle of LeBron

LeBron James is coming home.  The best basketball player on the planet has announced his return to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  An outcome that was unfathomable four years ago has become reality.  If you have not had the opportunity to read his letter, take a few minutes to do so.  His letter illustrates his maturation as a person.

Make no mistake this was the right basketball decision.  Kyrie Irving is an All-Star point guard, something James has never played with in the NBA.  Number one overall draft pick Andrew Wiggins is raw but skilled and last year’s number one pick, Anthony Bennett, struggles with conditioning but has undeniable skills.  Throw in Tristan Thompson and Anderson Varejao and Cleveland is one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference.

Then there is Kevin Love.  If Cleveland is able to trade for the most underrated and under appreciated talent in the NBA, they will be the best team in the Eastern Conference regardless of where Carmelo Anthony signs.  The new big three will take time to come together just as the South Beach trio did but once James, Love and Irving figure it out it will be dynamic.  Irving and Love have already given us a sample.

As entertaining as Uncle Drew and Wes are, James will still be the linchpin player.  Despite the perceived long odds to his return to Northern Ohio, and many were convinced it would never happen including this writer, it has become apparent that this narrative was inevitable.  American sports fans love two things, aside from dollar beer night and free giveaways.  Those two things are underdogs and comebacks.  James has never been an underdog.

However, this is his Simba moment.  Any number of books or movies fit the following analogy.  Perhaps a more academically inclined article would use Stephen Crane’s Red Badge of Courage.  However, James was born in 1984, which means he was approximately ten years old when Disney’s The Lion King debuted in theaters.  There is no question he saw the movie.  Undoubtedly, he can identify with the cliché but apropos story arc.  The young prince, Simba, oozed promise but an ugly event derailed his storybook life.  Simba felt responsible for his father’s violent demise and James found himself saddled with fifty years of Rust Belt sports frustration.

Simba and James each spent time exiled in a tropical paradise where two new friends rebuilt the fallen king.  It is doubtful that Dewayne Wade and Chris Bosh like the equation to Timon and Pumbaa but such is life.  After a period, the child prodigy has become a man.  In The Lion King, his childhood friend Nala came to the jungle and convinced him to return home to restore the luster to a fallen kingdom.  Cavaliers’ Owner Dan Gilbert journeyed to Miami to the same effect.  (Is calling Gilbert a lioness worse than calling Wade and Bosh a meerkat and warthog?)  As it is a Disney movie, Simba becomes king of his homeland and restores luster to it.  Time will tell if King James can finish his story with the Larry O’Brien Trophy in Cleveland.

When List Making Goes Wrong

The NFL Network has revealed 90 of the top 100 players as voted on by the players.  At least NFL Network says the players voted.  As is the case every summer, some players have taken contention with the Top 100 list.  Donte Whitner, now of the Cleveland Browns, is among these players.  His tweets and comments are here.  Whitner feels that he is among the Top 100 players in the NFL.  His exclusion from the list serves as launching point into the flaws of the Top 100. 

Looking at the safeties ranked in the Top 100 does raise questions.  The list is as follows: Earl Thomas (17), Eric Berry (50), Troy Polamalu (61), Kam Chancellor (65), Antrel Rolle (72), T.J. Ward (82), and Eric Weddle (92).  Looking at raw statistics is a dicey approach as safeties are required to emphasis pass defense or stopping the run depending on scheme and team personnel.  That makes Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value (AV) metric particularly useful.  The football junkies at Pro Football reference have boiled down the 2013 season’s stats and placed a value on each player that transcends raw statistical inequities as much as possible.

Based on the AV metric, where higher is better and the scale runs roughly from zero to 15, the rankings for safeties are flawed.  Listed in order with the AV value in parenthesis it should read, Thomas (11), Chancellor (11), Rolle (10), Ward (9), Berry (8), Polamalu (8), and Weddle (8). That shuffled line up should raise some eyebrows at NFL Network.

Whitner scored an AV of nine and his rookie teammate Eric Reid posted an AV of nine.  As a measuring stick for Whitner’s effect on his teammates, Dashon Goldson had an AV of ten in 2012 playing with Whitner but managed only a four this past season in Tampa Bay.  It seems safe to say that Berry and Polamalu have coasted on reputation and been ranked far too high.  Polamalu cannot claim to be raising his teammate’s performance either.  Ryan Clark posted an AV of six in 2013 after an eight in 2012.

To further, bolster Whitner’s claim that the voting not as advertised one only needs to look at J.J. Watt.  Watt came in as the 12^th player on the Top 100 list.  Meanwhile, Pro Football Focus graded him as the number one player in the NFL and it was not close.  Click to read how Watt almost broke the grading scale, again.  It is also worth perusing the most authoritative and credible ranking of NFL players based on the 2013 season.

 

              How does a player playing on an unseen level only merit the 12^th spot in the Top 100?  If the goal of the Top 100 was to generate debate and attention prior to training camps then the NFL Network deserves a pat on the back.  If the Top 100 list’s intent was credibility, then the NFL Network should save time and trees by ditching their balloting process.  A blindfolded, inebriated, primate flinging darts would be just as credible.

Are Americans Finally Embracing the Beautiful Game?

The round of sixteen is set to begin at the World Cup.  In a surprise development, one of those sixteen squads is the United States.  Surviving the “Group of Death” is no mean feat for a talented and gritty team.  The United States entered the World Cup ranked 13^th in the world, which signals that they have the ability to play with the best.

 

Belgium will test the United States and the country will tune in to see how the Red, White, and Blue perform.  Win or lose, but not draw since the sister kissing portion of the World Cup is over, the Men’s National team has sent the message that they are a legitimate threat in international competition.  This is welcome news for most U.S. sports fans but is already being misconstrued as a turning point in America’s soccer interest level.

Coverage of the World Cup routinely includes the cliché question: Has the U.S. finally joined the rest of the world and embraced soccer?  The particularly hipster commentators substitute futbol for soccer.  The answer is no.  Americans love to cheer for America, surprise.  Soccer continues to lag behind football, baseball, and basketball with hockey and auto racing more enthralling for the average U.S. fan than soccer.

 

World Cup interest and ratings have been high in Brazil but they were also high in South Africa.  The U.S. television market is embracing sports as a whole.  The DVR proof nature of live sports makes them an integral component in today’s Netflix world.  It is in the broadcast network’s interest to prop up the World Cup as a phenomenon.  The key is to ignore the hype and recognize the World Cup for what it is for the average U.S. sports fan, temporarily compelling.

The World Cup is a single sport Olympics.  The U.S. is competing for world bragging rights and viewers love that backdrop.  Swimming receives high ratings every four years during the Summer Games but no pundits claim that American audiences finally get it and are joining a global community.  Michael Phelps was a tremendous storyline and source of pride at Beijing in 2008.  He commanded the airwaves.  It did not result in a lasting interest in televised swimming stateside.

           Of course, Phelps was the favorite and Americans love the scrappy underdog.  Soccer provides Americans with the rare opportunity to be a considerable underdog, at least in perception.  Hockey also provided the U.S. with that opportunity in 1980.  Despite tape delay, the “Miracle on Ice” remains a treasure in the country’s collective sporting memory.  The U.S. may produce another treasure in Brazil, which will generate some soccer interest, but August is rapidly approaching and with it the NFL season.

Dewayne Wade, Not LeBron James, Will Determine Miami’s Future

The Miami Heat is in a precarious position.  Entering the NBA Finals, they were underdogs according to Las Vegas, but the two time defending champions were expected to contend with San Antonio.  That did not happen.  Other articles have detailed how the Spurs dissected the Heat’s defense more thoroughly than an honor’s biology lab dissects a frog.  This piece in particular is a great X’s and O’s breakdown of the Finals.

Now that the Finals are over the Heat must address the personnel issues that contributed to their defensive lapses.  The Big Three can all opt out or in and that flexibility creates a fluid situation.  The safe assumption is that all three will opt back in for one more season.  That does not eliminate the opportunity to add an All-Star quality player via free agency.

That player is not Carmelo Anthony.  Adding him would lower Miami’s defensive and offensive efficiency.  However, Kyle Lowry, most recently of the Toronto Raptors, would fill their needs.  The versatile guard averaged 17.9 points and 7.4 assists per game in 2013-14.  Signing Lowry would make Mario Chalmers expendable and a possible trade piece for the agile, defensive, big man the Heat need.

The catch is that Lowry will not be cheap.  Even if he discounts his services to seek a championship, and greater brand exposure, he will command at least ten million dollars a year.  This obstacle is avoidable if one of the Big Three were to opt out and restructure his deal at a severe bargain rate.  Dewayne Wade needs to do this.

 

           This would be the final part in Wade’s championship saga.  He teamed with an aging Shaquille O’Neal to will his way to his first championship.  By recruiting LeBron James and Chris Bosh to South Beach, Wade earned two more titles.  Now his knees have limited his effectiveness.  By gracefully moving aside, he will become the veteran sixth man that supplies energy, grit, headlong forays into the lane, and timely scoring.  In short, Wade has the opportunity to become Miami’s version of Manu Ginobili, albeit a less dangerous outside shooter.  If Wade accepts this role, it will signal Miami’s move to a Spur-esque team first attitude.  After all, if you can’t beat them, mimic them so you can beat the next season in the Finals.

Fisher Today, Zen Junior Tomorrow

Has Derek Fisher thought this out?  By becoming the New York Knick’s head coach, any success will be widely viewed as another by-product of Phil Jackson.  Jackson has targeted two former players.  Specifically, he has targeted his two most widely known cerebral, clutch sharpshooters.  Steve Kerr resisted the siren’s song of New York but Derek Fisher could not resist it.

To be clear, Fisher has the right constitution to move from player to head coach without any experience as an assistant.  Jason Kidd made the same transition this year and guided Brooklyn to the playoffs.  Once Brook Lopez was injured, Kidd utilized a small ball lineup that featured Kevin Garnett at center.  Garnett’s skill set resulted in this lineup moving the ball and attacking from the perimeter instead of focusing on interior touches for Lopez.  Kidd coached to his strengths as a former NBA point guard.

Fisher will do the same.  The problem is that what Fisher knows is Jackson’s Triangle offense.  If Carmelo Anthony stays in the Big Apple, that will be a big adjustment for the NBA’s most dangerous volume shooter.  It is apparent Kerr considered this issue and knew that Golden State would give him the freedom to solve it.  Kerr has met with David Blatt to be his lead assistant coach.  Blatt is widely regarded in coaching circles as today’s foremost offensive innovator.  Combine this with Kerr’s stated intention to have the Warriors run more and to emphasis Andre Iguodala’s talents by getting him out of the corner and it all comes into focus.

            Kerr recognizes that the NBA is now a perimeter league.  The Triangle will not be as effective as an up-tempo perimeter attack that focuses on efficient three pointers and transitions opportunities.  Jackson is arguably the most successful coach in NBA history.  The likelihood that he would hire a former player with no coaching experience and then allow him run a system counter to his own doctrine is slim.  Kerr wanted elbowroom and an offense that does not rely on the elbow.  Personnel and cap structure issue plague the Knicks.  Those issues will be resolved.  The question is if Jackson will allow Fisher to make strategy adjustments that run counter to Jackson’s philosophy.