Sporting Joe NFL Power Poll: Week 12

Thanksgiving football is an American tradition.  However, with often-incompetent Detroit and routinely erratic Dallas as permanent hosts an afternoon nap was often the only recourse from sloppy or dull pigskin.  This year even large doses of tryptophan should not result in an incoherent state of semi-consciousness.  Detroit faces a bounce back game against Chicago.  That game leads into a duel for control of the NFC East between Philadelphia and Dallas.  If that is not enough for you, the premier rivalry in the game will be on display as Seattle visits San Francisco in a contest that could effectively eliminate one of last season’s NFC Championship Game participants.

1)      New England- Three pertinent truths for Sunday’s showdown with Green Bay are worth mentioning.  First, Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the league right now.  Secondly, Tom Brady is one of the three best quarterbacks in NFL history (Montana and Unitas are the others).  Third, Brady achieved his place in history by winning exactly this type of game. 

           

2)      Green Bay- As the Patriot machine roles into Lambeau Packer fans should take comfort in Aaron Rodgers’ 42-10 career record at home.  Green Bay will need a historically efficient game from Rodgers in order to beat the Pats.

               

3)      Denver- The Broncos ran 35 times for 201 yards against a stingy Miami defense.  They also passed 35 times and gained 249 net passing yards.  Production aside, that type of play calling balance leads to winning football.

4)      Arizona- Losing at Seattle is not cause for alarm.  However, the mere three points that Arizona put on the scoreboard bears watching as the Drew Stanton experience marches onward.

5)      Dallas- Saying that Tony Romo gives a team a decided advantage at quarterback in a big game is absurd, unless the other team is lining Mark Sanchez up under center.  Advantage Dallas.

     

6)      Indianapolis- Newly signed return specialist Josh Cribbs displayed his talents with a 46 yard kickoff return and his 9.6 yards per return average on five punts.  A Colts offense averaging 30.3 points per game, good for fourth in the NFL, will be additionally lethal thanks to the hidden yards Cribbs will provide.

  

7)       Seattle- Sunday’s 19-3 win against a quality opponent, Arizona, felt like a vintage Seattle performance.

     

8)      Baltimore- The remaining schedule for the Ravens (vs. San Diego, @ Miami, vs. Jacksonville, @ Houston, and vs. Cleveland) is full of challenges and opportunities to work through a crowded AFC playoff picture.

      

9)      Detroit- A Matthew Stafford/ Calvin Johnson offense should score more than 15 points over two weeks.  Admittedly, the Lions were playing on the road against conference leaders but the offense must improve or the Lions risk missing the playoffs.

     

10) Miami- Losing at Denver hurt Miami’s playoff positioning but the game illustrated how much Joe Philbin’s team has improved over the last eight weeks.

How Denver Shot Themselves in the Foot in St. Louis

The NFL consistently delivers surprising results.  One of those results was St. Louis defeating Denver 22-7.  The Broncos under Peyton Manning’s quarterbacking are one of, if not the most, feared offenses in the game.  Somehow, a Rams’ team that had allowed 251 points in the nine previous games yielded a solitary touchdown to the Broncos.  Of course, every NFL team has good and bad weeks.  Perhaps a talented Rams defense simply caught the Broncos on a down week.  Bronco fans would certainly like to explain it away in such simple terms.

The game film does not offer such an easy explanation for Denver’s struggles.  The Rams have a talented defensive line.  Chris Long has been injured but St. Louis still fields a deep and tenacious front four.  It is common knowledge that the best way to defeat Manning is to pressure him.  St. Louis only had two sacks on the day but that is a deceptive statistic.  The threat of defensive pressure on Manning created an interesting dynamic for Denver’s play calling.

In an effort to avoid the pass rush, Denver utilized short drops for Manning.  Three and even some five step drops are the textbook counter move when facing an elite pass rush.  However, the Broncos outsmarted themselves.  They used the shotgun on 61 of their 67 official plays from scrimmage.  Since the shotgun places the quarterback behind the offensive line, any type of drop moves the quarterback into an edge rusher’s target zone.  The result was numerous plays where Manning was forced to throw early because he dropped into the pressure.  Additionally, Denver ran the ball a mere ten times.  The result was a Rams secondary that expected quick passes and a front four that often had Manning dropping to their preferred rush areas.

            So what does this mean?  For the Rams, it means a favorable matchup this week with San Diego.  The Chargers feature quick passes and that plays into a current strength got the Rams.  The difference will be San Diego’s wiliness to run the play.  That should keep St. Louis’ linebackers honest, which means they will not be able to cheat towards the passes lanes as they did against Denver.

 

            Denver’s formational and play calling imbalance only feeds the concern that this is not a team built for one and done football.  Some may assume that calling more running plays will solve the problem.  That is a naïve assumption.  Running from the shotgun is generally more difficult even with an aggressive offensive line and good backs.  Looking past the injuries in the backfield, Denver’s offensive line is in a less than ideal place.  Injuries and an over reliance on Manning’s arm has sapped the offensive line of the requisite tenacity.  Denver’s coaches are aware of this.  Why else bring in Richie Incognito for a workout?  Officially, the workout was to solve a depth issue but Incognito’s documented nasty streak must have intrigued John Fox and company.

            The Rams are not going to make the playoffs.  While that is disappointing, they can look back with pride on a convincing win against a talented team.  The question is if the Rams will be able to lay claim to beating a championship team.  Based on Denver’s over reliance on the shotgun and iffy offensive line play that scenario looks unlikely.

Sporting Joe NFL Power Poll: Week 11

The NFL truly has impressive parity.  Despite having played eleven of the seventeen weeks twenty-two teams can still dream of making the playoff.  In the AFC, only the Jets, Titans, Jaguars, and Raiders are effectively out of contention.  The NFC has suffered more attrition with the Bears, Vikings, Rams, Giants, Redskins, and Bucs all but mathematically eliminated.  The remaining six weeks of NFL regular season action are poised to deliver a mad dash to the finish line.

 

1)      New England- Jonas Gray amassed 201 yards and four touchdowns on the ground due in large part to New England’s use of an extra offensive lineman as a tight end.  The extra big body allowed the Patriots to seal the outside linebacker, which created massive alleys for Gray.  Yet another example of the game planning versatility that makes the Patriots so dangerous.

            

2)      Green Bay- Predictably, a healthy Aaron Rodgers has limited Eddie Lacy’s opportunities.  Last season Lacy averaged 18.9 rushing attempts per game.  This season he is toting the rock an average of 12.9 times a game.

           

3)      Arizona- At 9-1 the Cardinals can weather a stumble or two in December.  That cushion is reassuring to Arizona fans who witnessed Drew Stanton’s decision-making range from good (touchdown tosses of 42 and 12 yards) to bad (a pair of predetermined throws that resulted in picks).

4)      Denver- Granted the Broncos lost Emmanuel Sanders, Julius Thomas, and Montee Ball to injuries during their loss in St. Louis but the offense was woeful against a stout defense.  The tea leaves continue to point to Denver’s season ending in January.

5)      Dallas- This may be the perfect recipe for drama.  The Cowboys control their playoff destiny, Tony Romo has an iffy back, DeMarco Murray has fumblitis, and Dez Bryant is playing for a new contract.  Throw in a dash of Jerry Jones and watch how it plays out in Big D.

     

6)      Indianapolis- Losing Ahmad Bradshaw, broken ankle, for the remainder of the season is a crushing blow since neither Trent Richardson nor Dan “Boom” Herron offer the same spark to the offense.  The Colts’ season is at a crossroads.  A stumble against Jacksonville this week will give the surging Texans new life in the AFC South.

  

7)       Kansas City- Winners of seven of their last eight, Kansas City is the hottest team in the NFL.  A short week and a feisty Raiders team will give the Chiefs a tougher game than most people expect.

   

8)      Detroit- Having Reggie Bush available against the Cardinals certainly would have helped a surprisingly ineffectual offense. 

    

9)      Baltimore- The Steelers and Browns are better positioned the AFC North but expect the Ravens to mount a charge at the division lead.

     

10) Miami- Ryan Tannehill has steadied his play over the last few weeks.  However, Andy Benoit's film study reveals the secret to Miami’s success.

Sporting Joe NFL Power Poll: Week 10

After nine weeks of constant change, the Sporting Joe Power Poll is unusually stable this week.  The top nine teams either won or were on their bye week.  Pittsburgh lost a mild shocker to the New York Jets as Ben Roethlisberger finally cooled off.  Enjoy the stability this week as New England journeys to Indianapolis, Philadelphia visits Green Bay, and Detroit faces Arizona.  Those games and the inevitable upsets will inevitably alter the Power Poll once again.

1)      New England- The Patriot’s likely anticipate the Colts to come out swinging on Sunday night.  The quickest, and surest, way to silence the crowd will be isolating Rob Gronkowski on Colt’s linebacker D’Qwell Jackson.  Jackson is a phenomenal player in lateral or forward moving plays but he struggles to cover good tight ends.  At the moment Gronkowski may be the best receiving tight end in the NFL.
              

2)      Green Bay- Moving Clay Matthews to inside linebacker worked against an often-uninspired Chicago squad.  For the remainder of the season Matthews’ energy and willingness to chase down a play from the backside will outweigh the negative plays generated from his coverage deficiencies. 

            

3)      Denver-  Adding offensive lineman Richie Incognito seems like an odd move for a team with minimal chemistry issues.  Denver’s biggest issue to date appears to be Brock Osweiler’s understandable reaction to Peyton Manning trotting onto the field up 41-10 with seconds left in the third quarter of Sunday’s win over Oakland.

4)      Arizona- Carson Palmer cannot catch a break as a torn ACL has ended his season. Drew Stanton is now the starter and despite the best record in the NFL, the 8-1 Cardinals are back in the role of the underdog.

 

5)      Indianapolis-  Last season a young Colts team used a Sunday night visit from Denver as a coming out party as an AFC contender.  This year the Patriots walk into Lucas Oil stadium on a Sunday night.  Featuring Ahmad Bradshaw instead of Trent Richardson will ease Andrew Luck’s burden. 

    

6)      Dallas- It is easy to dismiss Jacksonville (1-9) as a bad team.  However, Gus Bradley has the Jaguars pointed in the right direction and playing hard, which makes Dallas and their 31-17 victory look good.

 

7)       Detroit- Another week and another down to the wire win, 20-16 over Miami, for the Lions.  Momentum is building in Motown.

      

8)      Philadelphia- With the dismantling of a dying Carolina Panthers team never in doubt, questions remain about Mark Sanchez’s ability to play well under pressure.  Darren Sproles will serve as a massive security blanket for Sanchez this week.  Look for Chip Kelly to isolate Sproles on Clay Matthews at Lambeau.

     

9)      Baltimore- Jim Harbaugh has been branded the “fierier” of the two brothers but John Harbaugh’s controversially aired comments following the Ravens’ win over Tennessee begs to differ.

   

10) Seattle-  The Seahawks may not catch Arizona, although they do play each other twice, but it is doubtful that the NFC West will not produce a second playoff team.  With Patrick Willis headed to injured reserve and Navarro Bowman still experiencing knee pain San Francisco continues to have their depth tested.  Seattle has had numerous injuries as well but Russell Wilson’s play gives them the edge in the playoff race.

Sporting Joe NFL Power Poll: Week 9

While neither Cleveland nor Cincinnati made the Power Poll this week, their Thursday night showdown may be the most important game of the week.  The winner of the Battle for Ohio will be the better positioned of the two to compete with their AFC North brethren for the division title.  Every team in the surprising AFC North is over .500, due in large part to games against the NFL’s most disappointing division, the NFC South.  Thursday night will kick off what should be a wild eight-week fight to the finish in the AFC North.

 

1)      New England- The Patriots dispatched Denver in impressive fashion.  The scariest thought for the rest of the league is that the Patriots have room for improvement.

            

2)      Green Bay- Perhaps this is too generous of a ranking for the Packers but Green Bay has something no other team in the tumultuous NFC can claim, Aaron Rodgers.  

       

3)      Denver-  Talking about an improved defense and the ability to win on the road in bad weather is great during the off-season.  Denver failed to deliver either aspect in Foxboro, which legitimizes the concerns circling this team.

4)      Arizona- Sunday’s victory in Dallas featured a rejuvenated Carson Palmer (249 yards, 3 touchdowns, and an interception).  The game also displayed Arizona’s ability to play stout defense and run the ball.

5)      Indianapolis-  There must be something in the water in Indy.  Much like Bill Polian’s Colts teams, Ryan Grigson's squad boasts an elite quarterback at the helm of a powerful offense.  As always in Indianapolis the season will be defined by how the defense plays.

   

6)      Dallas- Despite an off-season receiving the first team reps Brandon Weeden played like a failed NFL starter against Arizona.  Tony Romo is not an elite quarterback but Weeden’s performance illustrated Romo’s value to the team.

 

7)       Detroit- The returns of Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush should spark the offense.  The Lions are positioned to be an explosive offensive team and a stingy defensive club down the stretch.

  

8)      Philadelphia- Per Andy Benoit of MMQB.com, Mark Sanchez was more decisive and ran Chip Kelly’s attack more efficiently than Nick Foles had been prior to his injury.  The question is can Sanchez sustain his quality play?

9)      Baltimore-  The remainder of Baltimore’s schedule is manageable.  Trips to New Orleans and Miami appear to be the toughest tests left.  The Ravens still have time to vault to the top of the AFC North.

10) Pittsburgh- Despite thumping Baltimore (43-23) this past week the Steelers have not moved ahead of their rivals in this poll.  Pittsburgh’s success is due to Ben Roethlisberger’s historically brilliant playing (12 touchdown passes over the last two weeks).  History says that his production is unsustainable.